looking for northern lights...
D.W.Q.M.: Cornish: "Control to capsule: do you have visual contact?"
the Third Doctor: "Do you mean 'Can I see it'?"
'Go to bed, Ro!' I bet that's what most of you are saying if you see the time this was posted. ;) I know, I should get some sleep, especially since I nodded off during the Daily Show, but I just got a second wind, and am feeling a bit nerdy.
So I'm sitting hear after midnight, thinking about auroras, and wondering if I'd get the chance to see any tonight. Going back to the feeling nerdy part, I decided to write a bit about the likelyhood of us seeing auroral displays. The Space Environment Center has a handy page which gives some aurora viewing tips.
Let's get technical...
Of course, location is a big part-and knowing your magnetic latitude helps. They have a chart with different cities, but unfortunately Cleveland is not listed, so I used their map to 'guestimate' our mag. lat: ~51.0. Minneapolis is 55.1.
Other factors are the Kp index (level of geomagnetic activity) and NOAA POES Aurora Activity Level(also measures geomagnetic activity). Kp index ranges from 0-9, and is used to refer to geomagnetic activity over a 3 hour period. Here's a link to SEC's 3-day Estimated Planetary Kp index monitor It updates every 3 hours. "Storm" levels (most likely to produce visible auroras) are considered to be at a Kp index of 5 or greater. Aurora Activity Level is measured on a scale of 1-10. (lowest-highest)
...I just realized that I'm getting way to technical for this time of night. So, in brief:
Cleveland's magnetic latitude: 51.0; Kp index: 8; NOAA POES Aurora Activity Level: 10.
Minneapolis (respectivly): 55.1; 6; 9.
(yup, my sister is more likely to see the northern lights than me. In fact, she delights in calling while looking at them. ;) )
Handy links:
Aurora viewing tips
NOAA POES Auroral Activity page (will show the most current activity level)
Northern Hemisphere Map
SEC's 3-day estimated planetary Kp index monitor
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch (space weather forcasting)
Of course, the easiest way is to just go outside and look to the north...provided it's dark enough where you live. ;)
BTW, in the time it took me to write up this post, the Activity level went from a 6 up to 7. :)
Ok, time now to catch some z's. ;)
*Edit:* The Activity level and Kp index numbers is not an 'either/or' type situation. Both numbers have to be at the level of your Mag. Lat. in order for potential aurora sightings. For example-the activity level reached 10 overnight, but the Kp index was only about a 5, so there was little chance of me spotting anything last night. (Cleveland's Kp is only at 8) However, if my sister had been just a little farther north, she might have been calling me at 4 in the morning to announce she was watching the northern lights. LOL ;)
There's a table at the end of the viewing tips page I linked to above that shows how the Kp and Activity level relate to each other. Have fun! :)
the Third Doctor: "Do you mean 'Can I see it'?"
'Go to bed, Ro!' I bet that's what most of you are saying if you see the time this was posted. ;) I know, I should get some sleep, especially since I nodded off during the Daily Show, but I just got a second wind, and am feeling a bit nerdy.
So I'm sitting hear after midnight, thinking about auroras, and wondering if I'd get the chance to see any tonight. Going back to the feeling nerdy part, I decided to write a bit about the likelyhood of us seeing auroral displays. The Space Environment Center has a handy page which gives some aurora viewing tips.
Let's get technical...
Of course, location is a big part-and knowing your magnetic latitude helps. They have a chart with different cities, but unfortunately Cleveland is not listed, so I used their map to 'guestimate' our mag. lat: ~51.0. Minneapolis is 55.1.
Other factors are the Kp index (level of geomagnetic activity) and NOAA POES Aurora Activity Level(also measures geomagnetic activity). Kp index ranges from 0-9, and is used to refer to geomagnetic activity over a 3 hour period. Here's a link to SEC's 3-day Estimated Planetary Kp index monitor It updates every 3 hours. "Storm" levels (most likely to produce visible auroras) are considered to be at a Kp index of 5 or greater. Aurora Activity Level is measured on a scale of 1-10. (lowest-highest)
...I just realized that I'm getting way to technical for this time of night. So, in brief:
Cleveland's magnetic latitude: 51.0; Kp index: 8; NOAA POES Aurora Activity Level: 10.
Minneapolis (respectivly): 55.1; 6; 9.
(yup, my sister is more likely to see the northern lights than me. In fact, she delights in calling while looking at them. ;) )
Handy links:
Aurora viewing tips
NOAA POES Auroral Activity page (will show the most current activity level)
Northern Hemisphere Map
SEC's 3-day estimated planetary Kp index monitor
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch (space weather forcasting)
Of course, the easiest way is to just go outside and look to the north...provided it's dark enough where you live. ;)
BTW, in the time it took me to write up this post, the Activity level went from a 6 up to 7. :)
Ok, time now to catch some z's. ;)
*Edit:* The Activity level and Kp index numbers is not an 'either/or' type situation. Both numbers have to be at the level of your Mag. Lat. in order for potential aurora sightings. For example-the activity level reached 10 overnight, but the Kp index was only about a 5, so there was little chance of me spotting anything last night. (Cleveland's Kp is only at 8) However, if my sister had been just a little farther north, she might have been calling me at 4 in the morning to announce she was watching the northern lights. LOL ;)
There's a table at the end of the viewing tips page I linked to above that shows how the Kp and Activity level relate to each other. Have fun! :)
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